This book analyzes a series of decisions by leaders of three major terrorist organizations and identifies a unique "Decision DNA" for each of them.
The authors use the Applied Decision Analysis methodology to examine organizational and operational decisions made by the leaders of three major groups: Hezbollah (Hassan Nasrallah), Hamas (Khaled Mashal), and al-Qaeda (Osama bin Laden). Decisions that were of critical importance to each organization are identified and anaylzed, to uncover the particular decision rule employed by the leader in question and to establish their "Decision DNA." A Decision DNA is unique to each leader and can be used to explain previous decisions or predict future choices. The authors demonstrate that the findings presented can be used to promote effective counterterrorism measures, and they provide a series of policy implications that arise from their examination of each leader.
This book will be of much interest to students of terrorist studies, political violence, security studies, and Middle Eastern politics.
Table of Contents
1. The Logic of Terrorist Leaders' Decisions
2. Cognitive and Rational Explanations of Terrorist Leaders’ Decisions
3. Hamas’ Winding Political Path with Leehe Friedman
4. Between Limited War and Strategic Buildup: An Analysis of Hassan Nasrallah’s Decision Pattern with Ronny Donyetz Rosenzweig
5. Uncovering Bin Laden’s Decision Rules
6. Al-Qaeda’s Decisions in the European Theater
7. Conclusions and Implications for ISIS' Decisions
Alex Mintz is Provost of the IDC Herzliya, Israel, and former president of the Israeli Political Science Association.
John Tyson Chatagnier is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Houston, USA.
Yair Samban is a researcher affiliated with the Behavioral Political Science Lab at IDC Herzliya, Israel.